SwissCognitive Guest Blogger: Livia Spiesz – “AI in Diplomacy: Can Technology Foster a More Peaceful World?”

There are currently 56 ongoing conflicts globally involving 96 countries (Vision for Humanity, 2024; Salhani, 2024). The issue to mitigate this lies in the increasing norm of using force. Leaders are opting for peace-undermining military solutions, believing they can succeed through force rather than diplomacy. I would even challenge that as a reason. War seems to be the new status quo, disregarding also the thousands of lives lost in the process. What does it really mean? I let numbers speak: in 2023, the global expenditure on military operations reached $2.44 trillion USD, while peacebuilding and peacekeeping operations were at $34.1 billion. (International Peace Institute, 2023; and Dyvik, 2024). Result? 110 million people are displaced globally as we speak, and in 2023, more civilians were killed or injured by airstrikes, bombs, and artillery than in any year over the past decade. (International Rescue Committee, 2024; and Sabbagh, 2024)

Humanity struggles to learn from history, as violence remains a persistent and ineffective approach to resolving conflicts. With Artificial Intelligence (AI) being increasingly applied across industries and domains, I wonder, can this technology offer a solution to these escalating tensions and “save our world” from falling apart? Can it transfer diplomacy? Is the field ready at all?

After exchanging with hundreds of AI experts globally in the last over 6 years, I see great potential for AI in the world of diplomacy. This great potential is however wrapped in peril that needs the human mind, heart and soul to remove. On one hand, AI can revolutionize diplomacy and streamline negotiations (for instance through AI-driven conflict analysis tools and tailored approaches to negotiations), and also enhance global security (monitoring local news, tracking down misinformation, identifying potential conflicts, and anticipating trends (Delcker, 2023)). On the other hand, it can exacerbate existing disparities, fuel an arms race, increase sophisticated cyber threats, and deepen distrust among nations. This contrast makes me wonder: Are we prepared to handle this double-edged sword wisely, or will we let it cut deeper into the fabric of international relations?

AI readiness will likely determine future economic growth, potentially widening the prosperity gap between AI-ready and non-AI-ready countries (Georgieva, 2024). The United Nations (UN) has a critical role in promoting international cooperation and addressing this challenge posed by AI. The question is: are global leaders also prepared to create policies that ensure AI benefits everyone or will they simply reinforce existing inequalities?

Experts emphasize proactive AI governance to prevent risks from an unchecked race driven by strategic advantage and profit​ (Pasquini, 2024). Proposals range from informal agreements to initiatives like the WEF’s AI Governance Alliance and the UN Secretary-General’s AI Advisory Body​. These bodies aim to provide technical assessments and promote international cooperation. However, the absence of major players like China and Russia, along with the underrepresentation of developing nations, poses significant challenges​ (Zhou, 2024).
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The centralization of AI development in the Global North also creates power imbalances, leaving the Global South in a consumer role, sometimes with AI models that do not even fit local contexts (Antony et al., 2024). This problem is further complicated by the geopolitical impacts of AI, which potentially undermines the autonomy of countries that import these technologies (World Economic Forum, 2024). Governments face the dilemma of attracting investments from tech giants while protecting public interests. The lack of diversity in AI development leads to biased outcomes, disproportionately affecting marginalized communities. Are we considering the global impacts of our AI advancements, or are we perpetuating existing inequalities?

We are currently in the “inter-AI years,” a brief window to influence the trajectory of AI development before norms, values, and standards become entrenched (Cohen & Lee, 2023). Decisions made today will shape the future of AI and its impact on global power dynamics. This period is crucial for determining the path of AI, and it is vital that we get it right. AI’s potential to boost economic growth is enormous, with estimates suggesting that widespread AI adoption could increase global GDP by nearly $7 trillion over ten years (Cohen & Lee, 2023). However, realizing these benefits depends on the availability of energy, computing power, data, and models, not even mentioning AI literacy.

To leverage AI for global peace, we must move beyond mere regulatory frameworks and embrace a collaborative and inclusive approach. The UN’s role in promoting international cooperation is crucial. As AI continues to evolve, the question remains: Will we harness AI to create a more peaceful and just world, or will short-sighted national interests undermine its potential and allow it to further destabilize global relations? Time will tell. I personally see great potential for a better world where we augment our human abilities and capabilities with cognitive technologies. However, I would also like to emphasize that diplomacy thrives on the art of empathy, personal connection, and building trust – qualities I can’t imagine machines ever truly mastering.

References and Resources Used

Anthony, A., Sharma, L.; and Noor, E. (2024). Advancing a More Global Agenda for Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence. Link

Cohen, J. and Lee, G. (2023). The generative world order: AI, geopolitics, and power. Link

Dyvik, E., H. (2024). Global military spending from 2001 to 2023. Link

Garcia, E., V. (2020). Multilateralism and Artificial Intelligence: What Role for the United Nations? Link

Georgieva, K. (2024). AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let’s Make Sure It Benefits Humanity. Link

International Peace Institute. (2023). A Measure of Peace: Key Findings from the 2023 Global Peace Index. Link

International Crisis Group. (2024). 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2024. Link

International Rescue Committee (2024). 110 million people displaced around the world: get the facts. Link

Pasquini, N. (2024). Proactive AI Policy. Link

Sabbagh, D. (2024). More civilian casualties recorded in 2023 than any year since 2010. Link

Salhani, J. (2024). Iran’s response to Israel looms. What are the possible scenarios? Link

Vision of Humanity. (2024). Highest number of countries engaged in conflict since World War II. Link

World Economic Forum. (2024). Artificial Intelligence: The Geopolitical Impacts of AI. Link

Zhou, L. (2024). Russia and China compare notes on ‘military use of artificial intelligence’. Link

About the Author:

With a diverse background in human behavior, criminal psychology, leadership, diplomacy, development, and peacebuilding, Livia is committed to fostering understanding and growth on both personal and societal levels. As a strategic partnerships and communications expert with over 10 years of international experience, she has spent the last 6+ years in the AI industry, collaborating with hundreds of AI experts and leaders globally. Livia seeks out less-traveled paths and embraces challenges with a realist-idealist approach, living by the motto: “Reach for the sky, and you will get to the stars.”

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Copyright: forbes.com

Unbeknownst to most people, several nations today have national AI strategies in place to use the technology for various developmental purposes. Accordingly, AI is the perfect tool to facilitate digital diplomacy in the current landscape. Here’s how AI plays its part in creating and strengthening digital diplomacy around the world:

Improving National Policymaking Processes

Amidst today’s globalization, the internal politics and national policies of a country can have effects on its relations with other countries. For instance, companies looking to establish themselves in a foreign country will have to follow the laws there with regards to regulation compliance, employment and other factors. Additionally, the interest rates and production capacities in any country are governed by such policies and cause ripples in the global supply chain and fiscal markets.

Due to these reasons and many more, the role AI plays in improving policymaking in your country influences international diplomacy either positively or negatively. Considering that, here’s how AI can disrupt the internal policymaking process in your country:

a) Identification

The first phase of any policymaking process is the identification of problem areas that need to be worked on. Once governments or local bodies concerned with making binding decisions identify those, they can create policies to resolve the problems.

As we know, the data processing power and pattern recognition abilities of an ‘experienced’ AI tool are second to none. Such capabilities are invaluable for policymakers during crises like the ongoing pandemic, natural disasters or others. The basis of machine learning is to monitor such events and dig deep through past archives to know about how countries and governments worked their way out of them. Accordingly, the tools provide their recommendations to the public-sector leaders so that they can make the most effective policies.

In hindsight, the identification of a crisis before it strikes—like detecting the spread of a mysterious pneumonia-causing virus through several cases in hospitals—could have been useful to stop the COVID-19 outbreak when it had not reached pandemic proportions.

b) Formulation

Once an area is identified for which the creation of national policies is necessary, the formulation process enters the picture. After a thorough consideration of projected expenses, benefits and, in general, the odds of a policy working, AI speeds up this process by providing insights and predictive analyses.

Formulation is arguably the most vital aspect of policymaking as it involves elements of trial and error. It requires a significant amount of research, and necessitates the need for policymakers to have an in-depth understanding of the financial and cultural issues within their country. Digital databases can be configured to maintain records of such factors, making the task simpler. AI-powered tools can analyze historical big data and other information from the private sector, public sector, social media and other sources before generating insights for policies to be formulated. Rich and advanced countries can use specially-configured AI systems to optimize their trade-related national policies and improve their national balance of payments. […]

Read more: www.forbes.com

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SwissCognitive Guest Blogger: Rae Steinbach, a graduate of Tufts University with a combined International Relations and Chinese degree

Now, AI is everywhere. From finding out ways to enhance productivity to literally giving us tips on how to dress, AI platforms and software assist us in the process of most decision-making processes we encounter. Luckily for the corporate world, AI is impacting businesses too.

It’s not just AI’s ability to predict results via machine-learned analysis algorithms. It’s not even the way that operations are smoother and more automated through AI either. One of the most human elements of running a major business is corporate decision-making. Let’s face it: this is where a company either thrives or falls behind. The top minds of any business lead the charge and AI is proving to be the biggest ally in this process. 

When companies turn to things like an AI-powered bi tool, they’re embracing this exciting technology and prioritizing results, profits, and strategy all at once. Here’s why AI is shaking up corporate decision-making for the better.

Decision-Making and AI: A Perfect Pair for the Corporate World

Predictive analysis is a growing force in the corporate world. Simply put, this is the process of using statistics and data to predict future performance in key metrics and areas of business. It might sound like a no-brainer, but some are reluctant to hop into this new technology because of traditional decision-making processes. Likewise, many business leaders are hesitant to assume that hard statistics can inform a company better than experienced professionals can. The truth is that it’s not an either/or situation. In fact, corporate decision-making and AI are a perfect pair. 

The mass amounts of data a company collects shouldn’t be just a formality or part of the machine running smoothly. All that data offers insights into patterns for both industry and audience; two elements that can greatly affect any company. No matter your sector or specialty, predictive analysis via AI offers key insights that might not come through with traditional strategizing. Things like data-centric algorithms take a company’s data and show what is likely to happen in the next month, quarter, and even year. 

Is this some fortune-telling device you should live and die by? Of course not, and it’s certainly not a recycling of traditional corporate decision-making either. Think of the introduction to AI into your top boardrooms as a shift rather than a switch. By utilizing AI to monitor past trends, current performance, and future outlooks, you have a proprietary advantage over competition that simply seeks to keep doing things the old-fashioned way. 

How Do Business Minds Adapt to AI?

The business world that corporate thinkers know well doesn’t always seem fit for the increasingly technological side of corporate strategy. That said, AI fits more into the corporate decision-making process than you might initially think. Two things are crucial for corporations and businesses seeking to use AI to predict future performance. Firstly, investing into this technology is crucial and will take money and time. There’s plenty of short-term solutions to AI learning for business, but the best predictive analytics come from integrated systems that become a permanent part of the corporate decision-making structure. 

When you invest in AI, everything from product and service management to customer LVM analysis becomes more streamlined. It’s worth noting too that the initial financial investment you make in AI for corporate decision-making offers big-time returns. You increase your revenue through these predictive analytics that guide decisions while also reducing costs over-time thanks to technology’s front-heavy financial burden. 

When is a Good Time to Introduce AI to Corporate Strategy?

While some have hopped on the trend of AI for corporate decision-making, many are still holding off. That said, the best time to introduce AI to your business is as soon as possible. Financial limitations might not allow a board of directors to immediately say “let’s do it today,” but it should be on your radar as soon as possible. 

While it’s clear that AI has an important role to play in corporate decision-making, it’s true that the shift in strategy will take more than just a financial or operational change. A mindset shift is needed to fully invest in what AI has to offer companies. When you’re ready to make the shift, it’s going to change things forever in the best way possible. 

Rae is a graduate of Tufts University with a combined International Relations and Chinese degree. After spending time living and working abroad in China, she returned to NYC to pursue her career and continue curating quality content. Rae is passionate about travel, food, and writing (of course). 

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SwissCognitive Guest Blogger: Rae Steinbach, a graduate of Tufts University with a combined International Relations and Chinese degree

Remote work isn’t just convenient or time-saving; it’s a new way of looking at running a business or organization that prioritizes results and autotomy overdoing things the old fashioned way just because.

The rush to remote operations helped many companies start thinking out of the box. Now, many are considering a permanent move to remote work. There are a lot of things to consider ahead of this move, and one that many don’t fully realize is the impact artificial intelligence or AI, could have on the move to remote work. We’re not talking about replacing your team with computers. Implementing AI into the remote workflow can improve employee satisfaction, performance, and free up human resources by taking full advantage of algorithms that do some of your most important tasks for you. Let’s dive into why AI is becoming a great tool for organizations making the move to permanent remote operations. 

How Artificial Intelligence Fits Into Remote Work

We think of AI even in 2021 as a very complicated, science fiction-esque tool. No, AI isn’t here to replace humans or create more problems for workers. In fact, it’s here to do the opposite. AI is the development of computer processes and programs that mimic human action while using things like software, applications, and other work-related interfaces. 

When it comes to remote work, the major hurdles involve things like the management of a widespread workforce, an increase in responsibilities for employees, and the completion of routine tasks and newly added digital tasks. AI can help to make this huge digital transformation for workers easier and improve their job performance. 

As companies debate whether or not to go full-time with their remote operations, AI stands as the most impactful way to speed up the move to remote work. By allowing programs and algorithms to complete the tasks better suited to artificial intelligence, remote workers can be given more time to work on meaningful projects and other goals that only a human can accomplish. Here are a few of the most common uses today for AI in remote work.

Uses of AI in Remote Work

There are a lot of ways artificial intelligence is going to play a role in an increasingly remote workforce. For starters, AI will offer us more ways than ever to feel more connected from people sometimes hundreds of miles away instead of disconnected. 

Virtual Reality Meetings

If you’ve attended a webinar or video conference call this past year, you know how limiting the method of communication can be. A VR meeting is going to be the most impactful way remote meetings take place without losing the interactivity and real-time collaboration with coworkers and clients. 

By viewing avatars seemingly right next to you in your office or workspace, you don’t feel the same disconnect you feel over video conference. Plus, VR whiteboards, interactive search engines, and other tools facilitate more meaningful discourse while you’re meeting. 

Automation of Basic Tasks

When a marketing director needs to decide who will see the latest batch of digital ads going live, the process takes a lot of analysis and planning. This likely includes sifting through web data to see who is viewing what products or services, where they are most likely to spend time online, and a whole list of other demographics and market considerations. Instead of leaving that up to your marketing director, what if AI could identify target audiences, launch ads, and even contribute copywriting to the ad? 

Chase Bank and other brands utilize AI in a number of situations to automate basic tasks. If a computer program can take care of some of the most monotonous parts of your job, then let it! This leaves you and your team available to tackle more complex problems that require critical thinking and advanced planning.

When is Remote Work the Right Move to Make?

Only you can decide if remote work makes sense for your business or organization. If you do make the move to remote operations, then don’t ignore the possibilities AI can offer your team. The digital world is more competitive than ever and it’s best to use every tool at your disposal to stay on top.

About the Author:

Rae is a graduate of Tufts University with a combined International Relations and Chinese degree. After spending time living and working abroad in China, she returned to NYC to pursue her career and continue curating quality content. Rae is passionate about travel, food, and writing (of course).

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SwissCognitive Guest Blogger: Rae Steinbach, a graduate of Tufts University with a combined International Relations and Chinese degree

Although the cloud is becoming more prominent, it is presenting challenges to some who don’t understand the practices that keep cloud computing secure. A great example is security within the cloud and in regards to those who use it. While many are planning to expand how they use the cloud in the future, few are aware of the security implications that might have on their business. 

That said, a data breach is something no organization or company wants to experience. It takes financial and operational resources away from what truly matters: growing your business amidst growing competitors. With cloud security existing as a top priority that many need to invest more time and energy into, there might be a way to ensure that you have help when it comes to monitoring for breaches and unusual activity. The solution: AI and machine learning. 

What Role Does AI Play in Cloud Computing

Artificial intelligence is a solution that many aspects of business utilize in 2021. AI can help you pinpoint areas of your website that need improvements or even help you troubleshoot a major programming error. AI is also assisting in the process of better addressing security concerns in the cloud. Machine learning is a part of AI which involves algorithms that learn from data to better act like a human might in certain situations. When it comes to security monitoring within a cloud ecosystem, machine learning and AI can play an important role.

Cloud security is more than just data breaches. Depending on the size and scope of your business, cloud security can include ensuring only certain employees have access to certain information, encrypting things like internal documents, or even monitoring who is accessing the cloud at what times and places. These things can be crucial to pinpointing where data might be going if you’re concerned about privacy or sensitive information. While a human could monitor these things within the cloud infrastructure, machine learning helps to automate this process in an impactful way.

How Machine Learning Works for Cloud Security

As an AI algorithm monitors cloud activity, it can begin to recognize patterns and address irregularities all on its own. The longer you utilize an AI monitor, then the better it works. The more data it reads, the better it becomes at serving your business as a reliable and efficient check on cloud activity that might raise eyebrows. 

Let’s take a big company that operates entirely on the cloud like Netflix as an example of machine learning’s efficiency. Netflix has thousands and thousands of different uses for the cloud. Not to mention, the company’s employees might be significantly larger than your workforce. How does it keep track of ensuring cloud security keeps their data and info safe? AI algorithms help to monitor irregularities like security exploitations or unauthorized users. 

Whether you’re a small or big business, it’s best to let machine learning tackle this cloud security role to save human workers for more hands-on tasks. Plus, AI can begin to do things that humans sometimes squander as they concern themselves with numerous duties and responsibilities. For example, a pattern that leads to cloud security infractions might be noticeable to an AI algorithm that a human who is worried about numerous projects might miss. 

Human error as well as the large quantity of data monitoring needed to adequately protect a company against breaches help make machine learning and AI well worth the investment and implementation. As companies begin to think beyond traditional IT configurations, it’s crucial to imagine AI not as a tool but as a necessity to helping your business grow.

A Look Beyond Today’s Machine Learning

It’s not too far into the future that experts can see AI writing cloud infrastructure code and offering advice on bolstering digital elements of a business. AI gets smarter the more and more we utilize it, and that goes for security as well as the long-term growth of your business.

Finding ways to utilize the latest and greatest in cloud computing can be overwhelming, but experts agree it’s a necessary expansion for business to take on if they want to get ahead. Find time to explore where AI and machine learning could help your business and enhance your cloud security capabilities today.

About the Author:

Rae is a graduate of Tufts University with a combined International Relations and Chinese degree. After spending time living and working abroad in China, she returned to NYC to pursue her career and continue curating quality content. Rae is passionate about travel, food, and writing (of course).

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In recognition of the International Day of Peace September 21st 2020, the CyberPeace Institute hosted a podcast that distilled approaches taken by the Nobel Peace Prize-winning organization International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), and expanded on the CyberPeace Institute’s human-centric mission to foster peace in cyberspace. The discussion puts the spotlight on the intersection of major threats, and opportunities for advancing peace amidst the furor. A must listen!

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What is Peace?

The meaning of the word has vastly different outcomes depending on the individual. For instance, a country may not be at war in any given moment – and thus, as an entity with borders as confines – is at peace. However, a country is made up of many – thousands, millions, or billions of people – and if we were to ask each individual of that country whether they were at peace, we wouldn’t be surprised to learn that no, undoubtedly there is a significant portion of people in an ‘at peace’ country who are decidedly not at peace. There is no peace for victims of abuse. There is no peace for victims of trafficking. There is no peace for victims of any persecution. And now that we are living in our interconnected web, there is no peace for victims in the digital realm.

Peace, even if viewed solely through the lens of a nation state, has been an unfortunate, elusive truth throughout the ages in any case. There is a perennial ebb and flow of war and peace, and a mountain of aphorisms, structures, and religions alluding to and/or rationalizing the cyclical nature of a balance between tranquility and chaos.

Peace through Collaboration

In a practical sense, though, if we set our focus on nations and populations for the time being, the formation of institutions like the United Nations is the positive, inevitable response to the past and current reality of conflict. If we have decision makers from all corners of the globe represented, communicating their needs and wants, perhaps we can reach consensus without turning to the sword. According to the UN Peace Day site, “International days are occasions to educate the public on issues of concern, to mobilize political will and resources to address global problems, and to celebrate and reinforce achievements of humanity. The existence of international days predates the establishment of the United Nations, but the UN has embraced them as a powerful advocacy tool.”

Cyber, AI, Nuclear Weapons… and Peace?

Indeed. Through collaboration and human-cenric approach.
In the modern day, both the CyberPeace Institute and the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) are faced with the reality of exponential technological development dually aiding and degrading the sectors they have been formed to aid. In this podcast episode recorded in Geneva on September 21^st – The International Day of Peace – we celebrated the work they have done thus far, and what they have in store for the future.

“Our approach to this is to identify the strengths in this technology and to put them in context about how they are impacting each other.” Stèphane Duguin 

 

Human-Centric Approach

The CyberPeace Institute is the inevitable positive response to the negative side effects of connectivity. The institute was founded in early 2020, and the timing for an entity drawing a line between industries superficially disconnected from interconnected (read: cyber) technology and the implications of cyber security couldn’t have been more unpropitiously timed. During the heart of the European continent’s fight against the insidious COVID-19 infection, a hospital in the Czech Republic was hit by a ransomware attack. In other words, a sector, which those not in the know generally don’t associate with cyber-attacks, was compromised at the height of a pandemic. Whether or not lives were lost directly as a result of that specific incidence is unclear… but as of a couple of weeks ago from writing, a death officially attributed to an act of cyber-crime is now on record. It is this precise type of collateral impact that prompted the Institute to deliver a Call for Governments – congratulations to Stéphane and his team on rallying such a powerful list of supporters to the cause.

Stéphane elegantly highlights the crux of the mission – an effective response must be human-centric and grounded in accountability, transparency, and communication.

“Cyber is quite an unseen world… it’s difficult if there is no positive action to really analyze, document and look into what the accountability points are.” Stéphane Duguin

 

Ratifying UN Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty

As for kinetic warfare of the most destructive kind – nuclear – we also find positive action arising to fend off potential catastrophe. The civil society coalition known as the ICAN was established in 2007 to promote adherence to a legally binding international agreement to reduce, and ultimately eliminate, the use and/or compilation of nuclear arsenal. A Nobel Peace Prize Winning organization, ICAN embodies progress in peace cooperation, civil society mobilization, and triumph in the face of, and yet indelibly hand in hand with, powerful stakeholders. Building consensus amongst well over 500 International NGOs worldwide, they have succeeded in rallying numerous governments to join treaties, and you’ll hear the exciting news involving the word ‘ratify’ numerous times during the episode – congratulations to Beatrice and her team, impressive results keep a-coming.

“What does that do to people in the decision-making positions? Everything goes very fast and you have seven minutes left before the missile hits, and is it a real missile or not?” Beatrice Fihn

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Biographies

BEATRICE FIHN
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, ICAN
Beatrice Fihn is the Executive Director of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize-winning campaign coalition that works to prohibit and eliminate nuclear weapons. She accepted the Nobel Peace Prize and delivered the Nobel Lecture in Oslo on behalf of the campaign. Ms. Fihn has lead the campaign since 2013 and has worked to mobilise civil society throughout the development of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. This includes developing and executing ICAN’s political strategy and fundraising efforts as well as representing the campaign in relation to media and key stakeholders such as governments, the United Nations and other international organisations.

Ms. Fihn has over a decade of experience in disarmament diplomacy and civil society mobilisation, through her work with ICAN, the Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom and the Geneva Centre for Security Policy. She has written extensively on weapons law, humanitarian law, civil society engagement in diplomacy and multilateral institutions, and gender perspective on disarmament work.

Born in Sweden, Ms. Fihn has a Masters in Law from the University of London and a Bachelors degree in International Relations from Stockholm University.

STÉPHANE DUGUIN
MANAGING DIRECTOR, CYBER PEACE INSTITUTE
Stéphane is a cyber security expert with 20 years of strategic and operational leadership experience. Creator of operational partnerships with the Internet industry, the cyber security sector, the financial sector, academia and cyber centric NGOs. Advisor to senior policy makers and political representatives at international level in the field of cybersecurity and counter terrorism. Champion of innovation with a proven track record of programme management for digital transformation, I led the delivery of three of the EU flagships on cyber security: The European CyberCrime Centre (EC3), the EU Internet Referral Unit (EU IRU) and the Europol Innovation Lab. Stéphan’s experience also includes numerous keynote speeches and lecturing cyber threats, counter terrorism, risk management, business continuity and crisis management, both at operational and diplomatic level. Creativity is critical to any future looking manager: Stéphane writes and performs theatre plays for a (non) living.

NICK KELLY
HOST, SECURE IN MIND   
Founder and host of the Secure In Mind Project, a podcast production highlighting the stories of people who work with security and risk as part of their professional working lives. Collaborating, negotiating, and elaborating with fascinating people from all walks of life including politics, technology, activism, military, policing, and intelligence the world over. He brings this breadth of perspective to the table and has a dogged interest in pursuing the human story behind the title or policy.

Impactful Messages Require Impactful Messengers.

It is courtesy of the partnership between CyberPeace Institute, International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), Secure in Mind, and SwissCognitive that we can spread this discussion of a prevailing pragmatic peace process far and wide!

Stéphane Duguin
Chief Executive Officer
CyberPeace Institute
 

Beatrice Fihn
Executive Director
International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN)

Nick Kelly
Founder & Host
Secure In Mind

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PODCAST RECORDINGS
Join Beatrice, Stéphane and Nick for a lively discussion about how technologies like cyber and AI offer opportunities and risks for our interconnected global society, and how entities like the ones they represent are working hard to give peace a chance!

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Der Beitrag Cyber, AI, Nuclear Weapons… and Peace? erschien zuerst auf SwissCognitive | AI Ventures, Advisory & Research.

However long the pandemic lasts, diplomacy has been forever changed. How diplomats respond to the recent step-change in personal interactions and resultant altered statecraft will dictate whether national objectives are met, whether treaties are negotiated, and whether normal operations return – or diplomacy turmoil continues.

 
ARTICLE BY: Thomas A. Campbell, Andrew Hyde, Geoffrey M. Odlum, Ariel Ahram • Jun 11, 2020

The coronavirus pandemic has utterly transformed international diplomacy. Statecraft has long been driven by face-to-face interactions that expand through informal mechanisms, such as body language, spontaneous conversations, and an understanding of the views of other actors beyond rote statements of positions. Such meetings are now difficult if not impossible in the era of social distancing and work from home mandates. Meetings postponed or canceled altogether have slowed a range of negotiations while many important international conferences have also been delayed or gone virtual. Cybersecurity risks have amplified as unsecure networks are leveraged for conversations that would have normally occurred face to face. Diplomats must find new ways to work in this pandemic era, as well as what the current turmoil in operations may mean post-COVID19.

The practice of diplomacy has always been intertwined with state-of-the-art methods of information and communications technology (ICT). For example, telegraphy revolutionized the practices of diplomacy by accelerating the speed of communication between embassies and the metropole. The internet has had similar revolutionary impact on the practices of statecraft and diplomacy. Web-enabled ICT multiplied the number of voices and interests involved in international policymaking; complicated international decision-making; reduced exclusive control of States in the process; accelerated and freed the dissemination of information, accurate or not, about any issue or event; and enabled traditional diplomatic services to be delivered faster and more cost-effectively, both to ones’ own citizens and government, and to those of other countries. Following the development of social media, multiple government agencies are now avid posters on Twitter and other platforms in their attempts to shape public discourse at home and abroad. 

 

TURN TO TURMOIL

 

The novel coronavirus has imposed suddenly a full-court-press for diplomats to take to internet ICT, but accompanying this rapid change are new communications stresses and nuances. The functionalities and efficiencies of diplomatic ICT – including phone, email, social media messaging, and virtual meetings – are now routinely in question. The limitations of video-conferencing and other ICT-driven modes of communication have long been documented. U.S. Foreign Service Officers (FSOs) are specifically trained in face-to-face interactions and talking to groups. Exclusive reliance upon teleconference platforms such as Zoom and WebEx affect multiple core capabilities of the FSO. It is difficult to detect and project desired body language, thus introducing challenges in convincing foreign interlocutors to share private thoughts and intentions over a monitor. Negotiations are both enabled and constrained online, thus pushing the dialogue in sometimes unexpected directions. Reduced or no travel, fewer in-person meetings, and overall, limited personal interactions compromise statecraft. Video engagement changes how information and intelligence is collected, thus impacting institutional memory. 

 

Diplomatic activity and initiatives have slowed considerably as many major meetings and conferences have gone online, with others outright canceled. US Government agencies have suspended many pre-pandemic priorities and pivoted almost entirely to focusing now on coping with the virus. Security in the White House has increased with individuals working near POTUS being given daily coronavirus checks, thus self-limiting the frequency of high-level meetings. Intelligence officers at the CIA are working shifts, such as three days on followed by three days off, to improve social distancing by reducing the given number of people in buildings at any given time. In New York City, itself a pandemic epicenter, all aspects of life have been severely compromised for over a month now, detrimentally affecting United Nations Headquarters operations and activities. For example, COVID-19 has prompted changes in the working methods of the UN General Assembly: “Physical distancing and stay-at-home restrictions mean representatives can no longer meet in person, including to vote on resolutions, which are now circulated under a process known as ‘silence procedure.’ Ambassadors are given a 72-hour window to consult their capitals. If they all agree on a resolution, it is passed. If not, the resolution is not adopted as the ‘silence’ has been broken.”

 

Webinars and online meetings are the new norm, but they impact the large-scale and often slow-moving collaborative work of drafting and editing of diplomatic agreements and statements. These processes now often involve dozens of people all working remotely using a “track changes” mode of interaction. But direct contact and interaction often undergird these collaborations, as interlocutors know each other and can converse face to face before they move into the web environment. Going straight to the web without initial constructive in-person discussions in the best case merely compromises the speed of production; in the worst case it stymies it entirely.

 

Cybersecurity risks increase when executing all diplomacy online. A singular reliance on ICT raises new questions about the reliability and vulnerability of networks to disruption or espionage; unpreparedness opens new cyber-attack vectors for hackers, both amateurs and State-sponsored professionals. Governments may not have the requisite cyberinfrastructure and trained employees to seamlessly continue diplomacy operations from home offices. Sharing of sensitive documents either cannot be done at all, or only in a limited manner. Diplomatic online sessions can be recorded and played back with deep analyses of verbatim words and body language – normally hurried notes taking and brief summarizations are what constitute the record for face-to-face conversations. Since different organizations and different countries can adopt disparate and non-interoperable technological approaches, ICT compatibility confusion throws additional barriers at smooth statecraft. Some diplomats may avoid negotiations altogether because of security concerns, thus compromising statecraft progress in general.

 

ACCESSING THE ADVANTAGE

 

State engagements must continue apace regardless of the pandemic. Negotiations of peace, non-virus global health issues, human rights, climate change, nuclear nonproliferation, and trade all must occur, in whatever limited way. Embassies need to find ways to provide emergency consular services to visiting or expatriate citizens in need without putting diplomats at risk of infection. Diplomats face challenges in assessing emerging political, economic, and social trends when prevented from face-to-face meetings or travel around a country. National elections scheduled during this period of social distancing may take place without the confidence-building presence of foreign election observers, increasing potential for corrupt or anti-democratic practices to alter election outcomes. 

 

Diplomatic professionals will have to consider how the new online reality impacts their ability to advance their national interests, to understand rapidly shifting geopolitical events, and to reach publics overseas. Key is to understand how diplomacy morphs into a new normal in the coming months and years, and to identify means that diplomats and senior policymakers can prepare. Tactical challenges are to identify best ways of doing business and to implement them in real time during the pandemic. Strategic challenges are to consider how diplomacy following the pandemic might inalterably change, what new opportunities are present, and how to position diplomats accordingly.

 

Advantages and opportunities exist in this new online reality, nevertheless. Frictionless meeting logistics with accompanying financial savings for internet-only engagements; increased opportunities to hear directly from key players; younger diplomats shining with their greater digital skills – all these and more are coming to light in the pandemic era. As stated by the United Nations’ Under-Secretary General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, Rosemary DiCarlo, “Although we recognize that the limitations of the processes in which face-to-face meetings are restricted, the increased use of technology has the potential to create new opportunities [and] enhance the inclusivity of peace processes – for example, including the participation of women and young people.”

 

Concomitant with this new reality is the increased potential to leverage big data, predictive analytics, and other digital technologies. Investments should be amplified in artificial intelligence (AI) to analyze all data that can be extracted on any given country, region, or topic. Predictive analytics using machine learning (and its subset, deep learning) can then be applied to offer novel insights for meeting preparedness and briefings to senior policymakers; such approaches offer new opportunities in optimized human-machine hybrid decision-making. AI can also be used to automatically assess treaty compliance, as well as to monitor and predict events before they occur. In-situ machine language translations and real-time content assessment for both verbal and written communiques are feasible now. Increased security of voting processes via blockchain holds great potential. Virtual reality avatars can be applied to replicate the feeling of sitting across a table from a counterpart. Ultimately, there is a wide range of technological applications and solutions that await adoption and deployment by forward-leaning diplomatic corps.

 

However long the pandemic lasts, diplomacy has been forever changed. How diplomats respond to the recent step-change in personal interactions and resultant altered statecraft will dictate whether national objectives are met, whether treaties are negotiated, and whether normal operations return – or diplomacy turmoil continues.

 

ARTICLE BY: Thomas A. Campbell, Andrew Hyde, Geoffrey M. Odlum, Ariel Ahram • Jun 11, 2020

 

Read at source: https://www.futuregrasp.com/diplomacy-turmoil-during-and-post-covid19

 

The opinions and characterizations in this piece are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the U.S. Government.

 

Thomas A. Campbell, Ph.D. (tom.campbell@futuregrasp.com) is Founder & CEO of FutureGrasp, an advisory group that works with organizations globally to identify policy and business opportunities from emerging and disruptive technologies, especially artificial intelligence. Previously, he was the first National Intelligence Officer for Technology with the National Intelligence Council, Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI).

 

Andrew Hyde (andrew.hyde@futuregrasp.com) is a Nonresident Fellow at the Stimson Center, a Washington, D.C. based think tank, with the Transforming Conflict and Governance Program, and a Senior Advisor with FutureGrasp. Previously, he was a Foreign Service Officer at the U.S. Department of State and a Congressional staffer.

 

Geoffrey Odlum (geoffrey.odlum@futuregrasp.com) served as a Foreign Service Officer at the U.S. Department of State from 1989 to 2017. He is currently the President of Odlum Global Strategies, a national security and technology policy consulting firm, and is a Senior Advisor with FutureGrasp.

 

Ariel I. Ahram, Ph.D. (ahram@vt.edu) is Associate Professor and Chair of Government and International Affairs (GIA) at the School of Public and International Affairs, Virginia Tech.

 

Speaker’s Conference Notes

Thomas A. Campbell

Founder & CEO
FutureGrasp

CognitiveVirtual by SwissCognitive
Global Online AI Event Hosted by EPAM
22. June 2020

610 Attendees from 63 Countries

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SPEAKER’S NOTES

Der Beitrag Diplomacy Turmoil During and Post-COVID19 erschien zuerst auf SwissCognitive | AI Ventures, Advisory & Research.

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When a policymaker needs to make an urgent decision in an ongoing, complex situation, the AI-powered system will be able to summon a range of options with recommendations for the best move in a matter of minutes.

As it stands, the technology is purportedly still in its infancy, but one-day hopes to provide an unbiased view of political scenarios, without any trace of fear or ‘moral concerns’ that could get in the way of the nation’s strategic goals.

Scientists with knowledge of the plans stress that human diplomats will still be behind the final policy decisions, with the AI acting only as a support system. China already uses an AI system in the foreign ministry to analyse oversees investment decisions, researchers revealed.

Chinese researchers confirmed to the South China Morning Post the government plans to use AI as part of the decision-making process in some government areas. Dr Feng Shuai, senior fellow with the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, whose research focuses on the application of AI, said the project was already gaining pace. ‘Artificial intelligence systems can use scientific and technological power to read and analyse data in a way that humans can’t match,’ Dr Feng said. ‘Human beings can never get rid of the interference of hormones or glucose.’

The technology would strip away the tiredness and fatigue that can hamper a politician’s judgement. Scientists said it would also be completely immune to human flaws that can make some political decisions difficult, such as passion, honour, and fear. ‘It would not even consider the moral factors that conflict with strategic goals,’ Dr Feng added.

However, in order successfully make informed decisions that will benefit Chinese society, the AI machine would need access to huge volumes of data. According to the researchers, this could be a stumbling block for the technology, since some of the data needed to assess the viability of each option may be difficult to obtain, or not exist at all in the case of some isolated regions or countries. […]

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Even some seemingly harmless hacks are endangering real world security; for example, recent accusations of fake news production potentially affecting international relations and the outcomes of elections. These capabilities are now far beyond the usual common attempts at hacking like applying electronic graffiti on government webpages. They can endanger national security, regional relationships, international relations, and perhaps in the near future, even world peace.

AI as your security guard

Some in the intelligence community and private sector solutions providers are advocating artificial intelligence as a solution to resolving cyber security vulnerabilities. It appears commercially available anti-virus software solutions are becoming less potent against resourceful hacks. Even great firewalls can be surmounted with primitive tools.

Advocates argue that artificial intelligence is more attentive and precise in monitoring activities on the internet compared to human monitors. Their responses are also much faster than human operators and monitors of cyber security. In this sense, there are both potential pre-emptive and operational functions for artificial intelligence in tackling cyber security concerns. Artificial intelligence, if harnessed in an ethical and well-planned manner, can greatly improve human capabilities in cyber security.

Complex Systems need simple security

Compared to humans, artificial intelligence and algorithms also have other advantages such as faster and speedier interception of information, more precise identification of human targets and threats, and faster interpretive capabilities when trying to make sense of large inventories and stocks of information.

As they are complex systems, they also have the potential for immense predictive and anticipative capabilities based on normative behaviors, large databases, statistical pools of information, and accessible information to dip into. Human operators are far more limited in their abilities to tap into such databases and interpret information within a short time, something possible for algorithms and artificial intelligence to achieve. […]

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